UmiaAlongside the proposals, each market carries a no change option representing the status quo. Doing nothing is always the default outcome, and a proposal has to be priced above it to win.
Buy the outcome you think the venture should take. Each proposal trades in its own pool, and its price moves as people take sides. A higher price means the market expects that proposal to be the better outcome.
Liquidity is copied into each proposal rather than divided between them. Adding proposals to a market does not thin any of them out, so a market with five proposals trades as deeply as one with two.
Settlement uses each proposal's time weighted average price across the whole trading window. A spike in the closing minutes barely moves that average, so buying an outcome late does not decide the result.
While the market is open you can sell a position back into the pool at any time. Once trading closes, positions settle and can no longer be traded.
The proposal with the highest time weighted average wins, but only if it beats no change by at least 2%. If nothing clears that margin, no change wins and the venture carries on as it was.
Positions in the winning proposal redeem one to one for real ARIA. Positions in the proposals that did not win expire with no value, so a decision market pays out on being right rather than on taking part.
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